Is special session start of 2010 governor’s race?

From left:Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley (D-Las Vegas), state Sen. Bob Beers (R-Las Vegas), state Sen. Joe Heck (R-Henderson).LAS VEGAS - Perhaps the biggest irony of Gov. Jim Gibbons' call for a special session of the legislature June 23 is that he could potentially be providing a golden opportunity for the politician who could defeat him in 2010.

Three state legislators, Assembly Speaker Barbara (D-Las Vegas) and state Sens. Joe Heck (R-Henderson) and Bob Beers (R-Las Vegas), are rumored to be interested in Gibbons' job, and any one of them could use the session to strike a first blow in an eventual campaign against him.

Taking into account his "no solutions are off the table" pledge and short of Gibbons shooting the moon politically, here is what we can expect to see next week from the looming gubernatorial contest.

Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley - Buckley's first reaction to Gibbons' announcement Friday was shock.

"Unbelievable, unbelievable," Buckley told the Associated Press. "It's apparent that the governor wants to change the message away from his text-messaging, because this idea makes no sense."

Since her initial surprise, however, Buckley has swung into action, calling for a meeting with the entire Democratic caucus Wednesday to address not just the policy, but the politics of the session.

Within her caucus, she has the power to defeat the solution proposed by Senate Majority Leader Bill Raggio (R-Reno), a Gibbons ally, to defer a cost-of-living allowance increase for teachers and state workers.

Voting down the COLA deferment, however, may force legislators to propose alternative solutions to the current budget shortfall, which the governor's office estimates at more than $60 million.

Buckley, a member of the Interim Finance Committee, will receive input Wednesday from fellow members about proposals to fix the budget shortfall without cutting the COLA increases. Some ideas from the IFC will include further cuts to nonessential state spending and shortening state employees' workweeks.

Other ideas are likely to be political hot potatoes, however.

"There are some fees that were looked at that could be ‘not-sunsetted,'" said one Democratic legislator who declined to be named. "There's some additional dollars that could be raised by starting some new fee structures on a couple of other things that people consider to be luxury items."

Buckley's task will be to find a reasonable plan that can't be used against her in 2010 and find some consensus among legislative leaders. If a plan that doesn't cut the COLA and doesn't raise taxes comes out of the special session, Buckley will have staked a claim on responsible leadership, proven an ability to reach across the aisle and cast unquestionable doubt on Gibbons' governing ability.

State Sen. Bob Beers - Once Gov. Jim Gibbons' rival in the 2006 Republican gubernatorial primary, Beers is again in a tight race, this time for re-election in Senate District 6.

Beers was initially in line with the governor's call for a special session and supportive of Raggio's proposal Friday.

"I think we have a choice of reducing the COLA or laying people off," said Beers. "I would rather not lay people off."

Monday, however, Beers told the Las Vegas Review-Journal that he and fellow Republican legislators had come up with a plan that would not require either.

"It would involve giving the governor more discretion," Beers said. "He would not have to make across-the-board cuts. One agency could be cut more than others."

Beers hopes to find consensus with other legislators, including Democrats, on a plan. Not only could success bolster his argument to voters to re-elect him this year, but it could also serve as an implicit argument that Republicans should have chosen him for governor last election.

Beers has an added advantage in that he can choose his battles on the issue of taxes. If Buckley stands behind a plan that includes raising taxes or fees, Beers can refuse, even if Gibbons potentially can't. In that scenario, expect Beers to go after both Gibbons and Buckley for raising taxes in 2010.

State Sen. Joe Heck - Last year, Heck was considered one of the most vulnerable Republicans up for re-election in 2008. Now, however, following a brief tour in Iraq with the U.S. Army Reserves and facing a weak opponent in Senate District 5, Heck is rumored to be considering a gubernatorial campaign sooner rather than later.

"He has his eye on the governor's mansion," said Heck's current opponent, Democrat Shirley Breeden earlier this month.

Like Beers, Heck has been working with fellow Republican legislators including Raggio. Unlike Beers, Heck said he did not expect legislators to reach a consensus and would be going to Carson City "with an open mind."

Besides deferring COLA increases, Heck said other options should also be examined like cutting the state's budget 2 percent across the board and Lt. Gov. Krolicki's proposal to securitize the state's tobacco settlement money.  Both options have met resistance from legislative leaders.

Heck said he has also been looking at possible cuts to the budget.

"I'm looking at other-I've been pouring through the 2,762-page budget from last session, trying to see what's still in play, what's not in play and where we might be able to save some dollars," Heck said.

As of Monday, Heck had not spoken with Gibbons about the governor's proposed agenda for the session, but publicly urged for an opportunity to address alternative plans.

"I'm keeping an open mind, going up-following the governor," said Heck. "He's saying that everything's on the table, so let's make sure everything's on the table."

With a possible slate of cuts to propose himself, Heck could play a crucial role in senate negotiations and burnish his own budget-cutting credentials.

"Obviously it could give [Heck] some statewide exposure," said UNLV political science professor David Damore. "But he's going to have to contend with Bob Beers, who's going to be doing the same thing. The two of them already have the reputation of being budget hawks."

Gov. Jim Gibbons - Of course, the highest stakes in this special session will be for Gibbons. Reeling from bad publicity surrounding his divorce, revelations about text messages with an alleged mistress and bad polling numbers, Gibbons' call for this special session caught lawmakers and the press by surprise.

His announcement Friday came one day after senate leaders in both parties told him a special session was unnecessary and the same day that a Mason-Dixon poll commissioned by the LVRJ found that nearly twice as many Nevadans rate Gibbons' job performance as "poor" than do "excellent" or "good."

In a special session, Gibbons will have the advantage of setting the agenda, but will be an easy target for attacks for the "wasted" costs of the session and for any proposals his administration provides.

Among the tight ropes Gibbons will walk next week include demonstrating that it is his own leadership, not legislators,' that will resolve budget problems, hewing to a 2006 pledge to not raise taxes and not allowing the session to appear to be a waste of time.

Then he'll get to start planning for the next session and re-election.